Transformer Primitives
Passing Along Some Cool Work
I write a lot about AI on here, so you could probably presume I understand how it all works. I do, of course — I’m a burgeoning global thought leader — but I’m not sure if all of my readers do (though I’m sure most of you know better than I do). To that end, I want to share something a friend of mine made (click on the image to go to the site).
I didn’t know he was working on this, so it was a pretty nice surprise to see it pop up.
Check it out; then you’ll understand how the demon robots who are going to ruin society work, mathematically.
News Scan
Trump Launches “Project Freedom”: US Navy to Escort Ships Through Hormuz Starting Monday
Source: Bloomberg / Al Jazeera / CNN / Axios
Date/Time: May 3–4, 2026
Trump announced “Project Freedom” on Sunday, a US military operation to escort civilian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz beginning May 4. The operation involves guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members — a deployment that effectively challenges Iran’s blockade with direct military presence. Trump framed it as “a humanitarian gesture” for ships “flagged in countries not affiliated with the conflict,” but Iran’s parliament national security chair immediately warned that any US interference in the Strait would be treated as a violation of the April 8 ceasefire. The ceasefire has already been violated by both sides, and Iran is simultaneously reviewing a US response to Tehran’s 14-point peace proposal, making the timing of this military operation particularly volatile — it could either force Iranian capitulation on the Strait or trigger a resumption of open hostilities.
Axios
China Formally Defies US Sanctions on Iranian Oil Refiners
Source: Bloomberg / Al Jazeera / Washington Examiner
Date/Time: May 2–3, 2026
Beijing’s Commerce Ministry formally ordered Chinese companies not to comply with US sanctions on five domestic oil refiners linked to the Iranian crude trade, deploying China’s 2021 anti-foreign-sanctions blocking statute for what analysts are calling its most significant use since enactment. The five refiners — Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) plus four “teapot” refiners including Shandong Jincheng and Hebei Xinhai — have purchased Iranian oil sanctioned by Treasury, generating hundreds of millions in revenue for the Iranian military. China’s move directly challenges the dollar’s reach as a financial system weapon: it effectively grants legal protection to firms that ignore US secondary sanctions, and arriving days before Trump’s May 14 Beijing summit, it signals that Xi is unwilling to let economic concessions come at the cost of Iran oil access. The confrontation establishes a precedent that the US sanctions architecture has a structural ceiling when China actively resists.
Bloomberg
Bessent: Iran Oil Storage Nearly Full, Shutdowns Imminent — Iran Reviews US Response to 14-Point Peace Proposal
Source: Bloomberg / CNBC / Fox Business / Gulf News
Date/Time: May 1–3, 2026
Treasury Secretary Bessent stated Sunday that US pressure is “suffocating” Iran, with crude storage “rapidly filling up” and oil infrastructure “starting to creak” — predicting Iran may be forced to begin shutting in wells within a week. Bessent noted Iran cannot pay its soldiers and that maritime restrictions have been highly effective: “We have been running a marathon and now we are sprinting toward the finish line.” Simultaneously, Iran confirmed it is reviewing the US government’s reply to Tehran’s 14-point peace proposal, which calls for guarantees against future attacks, US force withdrawal, release of frozen Iranian assets, lifting of sanctions, war reparations, and a “new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz” — but crucially defers nuclear talks to a separate track. Trump said he is “not happy” following his conversation with Iran. The convergence of economic pressure reaching a tipping point and a pending diplomatic response creates the most acute binary risk of the conflict: either a deal framework emerges within days, or Iran — under existential economic pressure — escalates.
Bloomberg
Fed Dissenters Explain Votes: Logan, Kashkari, Hammack Say They Opposed Easing Bias
Source: CNBC / Federal Reserve
Date/Time: May 1, 2026
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack each released public explanations for their dissenting April 29 FOMC votes. All three voted against the statement language that hinted the next move would be a cut. Logan — an influential voting member — said she is “increasingly concerned” about getting inflation back to target, explicitly citing Middle East geopolitical risks, and noted the current stance of policy may provide “little restraint on economic activity and inflation.” This is reaction function intel beyond what was conveyed in the FOMC statement: the dissenters’ threshold for cuts is materially higher than the statement implied, and the war’s inflationary supply shock is now formally embedded in their framework. With three of the more hawkish voting members publicly setting a high bar, the market’s nascent pricing of 2026 cuts faces a concrete obstacle unless the war resolves and energy prices fall.
CNBC
ECB: Kazimir Says June Hike “All But Inevitable”; Villeroy Signals “Caution and Readiness”
Source: Bloomberg / MarketScreener
Date/Time: May 4, 2026
Slovak ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated Monday that “policy tightening in June is all but inevitable,” citing that energy cost pass-through to the broader economy is on track and the Iran war “has not surprised us in a positive way.” Outgoing Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau — historically among the Council’s doves — said the ECB must balance “caution and readiness,” acknowledging the need to act if inflation broadens beyond oil through second-round wage and services effects. The two speakers represent opposing flanks, but even the dove is now framing the question as “when” not “whether.” ECB hawk Stournaras separately called recession risk “real and justified,” providing the dovish counterweight that may limit the hiking cycle’s depth. Markets are pricing three ECB hikes in 2026 with the first in June — consensus is hardening even as the inflation profile remains uneven.
Bloomberg
Eurozone Inflation Hits 3.0% in April — Highest Since September 2023
Source: Eurostat / CNBC / Euronews
Date/Time: April 30, 2026
Eurozone annual inflation jumped to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, driven by energy costs surging 10.9% year-on-year — the fastest pace since February 2023 — as the Middle East conflict continues to push oil and gas prices higher. Headline inflation accelerated across all major EZ economies: Germany 2.9%, France 2.5%, Italy 2.9%, Spain 3.5%. Core inflation (ex-energy, food) nudged down marginally to 2.2% from 2.3%, providing the sole piece of dovish ammunition for ECB Council members who want to wait for evidence of demand-side entrenchment before hiking. The widening gap between headline (3.0%) and core (2.2%) captures precisely the ECB’s dilemma: the inflation is real and broadening across countries, but the driver is an external supply shock rather than domestically generated demand. This data directly supplies the evidence base for the June hiking camp and is the hardest near-term input into the June decision.
Eurostat
Bank of England Holds 3.75% in 8-1 Vote; Pill Lone Hawk Seeks Immediate Hike
Source: Bank of England / CNBC
Date/Time: April 30, 2026
The Bank of England’s MPC voted 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with Chief Economist Huw Pill as the sole dissenter seeking an immediate 25bp increase to 4.0%. The BOE acknowledged that Middle East war conditions continue to push energy and fuel costs higher but characterized its ability to counteract an external supply shock with monetary policy as limited. UK CPI reached 3.3% in March and the BOE expects inflation to spike further into the summer as energy price pass-through continues, with markets pricing two or more additional hikes before year-end. The 8-1 vote reveals a committee that is uncomfortable acting but is watching for evidence of second-round effects in wages and services that would shift the calculus. Pill’s solo dissent keeps the door open and provides a leading indicator of how the vote might shift if services inflation accelerates.
Bank of England
Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on EU Automobiles, Accusing Bloc of Non-Compliance
Source: Bloomberg / CNBC / Al Jazeera
Date/Time: May 1, 2026
Trump announced via social media that he would raise the US tariff rate on EU cars and trucks to 25%, accusing the bloc of failing to fully comply with the trade agreement negotiated last July. That agreement set a 15% ceiling on most EU goods, subsequently reduced to 10% after the Supreme Court ruled Trump lacked authority to declare an economic emergency to charge higher tariffs. The EU denied the non-compliance allegation and said it remains committed to the deal, while signaling readiness to retaliate. BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen — which import a significant share of US-sold vehicles from European factories — would be most directly impacted. With the ECB already navigating a stagflation scenario and European automakers facing structurally higher US market access costs, a 25% tariff escalation would simultaneously compress auto sector margins, reduce export revenues, and create a new headwind to the EZ growth picture at precisely the wrong moment.
Bloomberg
Japan Spends $35 Billion in Yen-Buying Intervention After ¥160 Breach
Source: Bloomberg / Japan Times
Date/Time: May 1, 2026
Japan conducted yen-buying foreign exchange intervention on Thursday, spending an estimated ¥5.48 trillion ($35 billion) — its largest intervention since July 2024 and near the $36.8 billion record from that episode. The trigger was USD/JPY trading above ¥160, a level Japanese authorities had signaled repeatedly as a red line. The yen surged more than 2% on the intervention, its biggest single-session gain in three years, with the dollar falling 1.7% against the yen on the week. The US Treasury was notified in advance. Analysts noted the intervention’s durability is limited without policy rate support from the BOJ: with Japan’s real rate still deeply negative and the war-driven oil shock putting new inflationary pressure on the economy, the BOJ faces conflicting pressures — the weak yen is inflationary but higher rates risk amplifying the growth shock from high energy prices. The yen’s post-intervention trajectory will determine whether Japan is forced into another large-scale operation.
Bloomberg
Warsh Senate Full Vote Set for Week of May 11 — Before Powell’s May 15 Expiry
Source: CNBC / Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance
Date/Time: May 1–4, 2026
After the Senate Banking Committee cleared Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination 13-11 on April 29 — the first fully partisan vote on a Fed chair nominee in committee history — the full Senate is now expected to vote the week of May 11, putting Warsh on track for confirmation before Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15. A critical obstacle was cleared when the DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Powell, allowing Senator Thom Tillis to withdraw his opposition. With Republicans holding 53 seats and needing only a simple majority, confirmation appears highly probable. Warsh, who has signaled he will eliminate the dot plot, abandon forward guidance, and restructure press conferences, represents an abrupt shift in how the Fed communicates its reaction function — arriving at precisely the moment when the FOMC’s internal cohesion is already under the most strain and when clarity of forward guidance matters most for anchoring inflation expectations.
CNBC
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