Keep People Weird

A Machine Is A Better Machine Than You Are

In yesterday’s post, I talked about how unless you are a home health aide, nobody is hiring. There are structural, macro factors causing this, but an underappreciated one (though if you read my Substack, probably not underappreciated by you) is that AI is making the hiring process a Kafka-esque nightmare.

Actually, it’s making lots of things into Kafka-esque nightmares, and it’s probably only going to get worse.

Bucco Capital had an interesting post on how technology’s removal of friction from daily life, rather than making things better, has made everything worse.

Friction is a Feature

As he puts it:

We would be wise to consider the lesson of Chesterton’s Fence.

Chesterton’s Fence, described most succinctly, says:

“Do not remove a fence until you know why it was put up in the first place.”

What people are quickly and painfully realizing as AI removes fence after fence after fence: Friction wasn’t a barrier to the system working. It was an essential part of the system.

And what that looks like in practice is:

When a system gets overrun, the people with means find the side door. When public school systems decline, the rich kids go to private schools. When cities get dirty and violent, people with means to move go to the suburbs.

Take job hiring. Open roles are now getting thousands and thousands of the most perfectly-crafted resumes and cover letters. If everyone can contextualize their resume, then nobody stands out. The temptation will be for hiring managers to rely even more on their network, even more on the filtering work already done by elite institutions, the Mag 7, and this year’s hot startups. Ask anyone who has tried to get a job recently. The job board is already mostly performative. Who stands a chance against 15,000 people applying instantly? The ones with access to the side door. In a world of abundant AI, the advantage compounds for the Stanford grad, the Google alum, the already-connected friend of a friend.

The people who can afford to step outside the system, which has been flooded with zero-signal AI slop, will quickly and efficiently do so. In fact, they will be greeted with open arms by the person on the other side of the transaction.

Those with connections will build their own social networks, both online and offline. This has already happened on social media. The action isn’t on the timeline, it’s in the group chats. Those without the connections will remain on the public timeline, posting in the sea of AI agents spamming garbage.

Ultimately, I think it’s inevitable that we will use AI to fight AI. And the absurdity of this scenario is that everyone pays more only to be worse off. Applicants paying $20 to refine their resume, companies paying $50k/yr for an AI screening tool, only for the hiring manager to hire through the side door.

The same will happen for college admissions. AI essays screened with AI detectors. The one part of the application process meant to highlight the unique humanity of applicants - to celebrate and distinguish them as more than a test score - destroyed by slop.

The best candidate didn’t win. The filtering mechanism didn’t even work. The winning candidate left the AIs to fight each other and circumvented the entire charade. The token dealers will get rich, and we will be increasingly frustrated.

Here’s the truly depressing part: If human nature has shown us anything, it’s that once friction is removed from the system, you can’t fix it by trying to add friction somewhere else. You can see that on the internet, where CAN-SPAM laws and GDPR cookie pop-ups and screen time limits haven’t really fixed the problems caused by the reduction in friction. We are all growing more addicted to being online every day, feeding more of our personal information into a giant ad targeting cannon that fires hyper-targeted content and products directly into our eyeballs as we scroll for hours on end.

And you can see the impact of removing friction in offline areas, too. We removed as much of the friction as possible from our food system and now 40% of the adult population is obese. The obesity epidemic is placing significant strain on our healthcare system, and the CDC now estimates that obesity costs the US healthcare system almost $173B a year.

Humans, it turns out, are not good at adapting when friction is removed from a system. We’re solving the problem in a very American way - not by reintroducing friction into the system (although some people prefer to shop at their local farmer’s market), but by using drugs to make people skinny again.

Believe it or not, I’m not as much of a doomer as Bucco Capital, though I think his observation is correct. The friction is what allowed for selection, so the removal of friction has removed the removal of the ability to select based on the preexisting selection criteria. In the examples listing above, the selection criteria are all some derivatives of intelligence — strong resumes, college essays, or witty opening lines; now that intelligence has been commoditized by AI, those are no longer expensive signals.

New signals will evolve to replace those that are no longer useful. Networking rises in value, as does any demonstration of intelligence done in public so as to remove the influence of AI (public speaking, performing, etc.). If online dating has led to looksmaxxing and style-over-substance, then real world displays of boldness and charm only rise in value. And if everyone’s social media persona is anodyne and the real action happens in the group chat, the people who bring the group chat vibes¹ to the main timeline will stand out.

Comparing the new success profile to the old one, you’ve gone from a world of optimized resumes, optimized essays, and optimized dating profiles to one of human connection, public displays of virtue, bold action, charming repartee, and authentic expression in spite of Longhouse oppression. While the removal of friction may have made it more difficult for the average person to seem more than, it has vastly raised the returns on being a truly above-average specimen of humanity.

Leaning into being a person is the new Learn to Code².

News Scan

US and Iran Agree to Two-Week Ceasefire; VP Vance to Lead Islamabad Talks Friday

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN
Date/Time: April 7, 2026, 22:37 GMT
Pakistan brokered a two-week suspension of US bombing operations against Iran, contingent on Tehran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced Iran had submitted a “10-point proposal” with “almost all points agreed,” and confirmed Israel had also agreed to suspend strikes. Vice President Vance is expected to lead the US delegation to peace talks in Islamabad on Friday. The deal sent oil prices plunging double digits and triggered the largest equity rally in a year across European and US markets. This is the single largest macro repricing since the conflict began: the energy shock premium built up over six weeks is unwinding in hours, reviving rate-cut bets across major developed-market central banks and materially shifting the near-term inflation trajectory.
CNBC

Hormuz: 800 Vessels Still Trapped; Gap Between US and Iran Ceasefire Terms Creates Implementation Risk

Source: Bloomberg, Lloyd’s List, gCaptain
Date/Time: April 8, 2026
Some 800 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf — 426 tankers plus 34 LPG and 19 LNG carriers, with 20,000 seafarers aboard. The first two ships attempted exit Wednesday morning, but a significant discrepancy in ceasefire terms complicates the outlook: Trump declared a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the strait, while Iran confirmed passage only “in coordination with Iran’s armed forces” and within “technical limitations.” Markets have priced in full Hormuz reopening, but if the coordination requirement amounts to an effective Iranian veto over individual transits, the supply-relief trade could partially reverse. The 14-day clock is running.
Bloomberg

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Rates “Well Positioned” to Handle Dual Inflation and Labor Risks

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve
Date/Time: April 7, 2026, 21:50 GMT
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the current policy stance is “well positioned to respond to a range of outcomes,” flagging simultaneous downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation. He characterized rates as broadly neutral — neither stimulative nor restrictive — and said the energy price surge from the Middle East conflict will push headline inflation higher near term but that the effect should wane. Jefferson’s remarks firmly set expectations for a hold at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As the Fed’s second-ranking official, his framing of the dual-risk environment signals the committee is not yet seeing a path to cut — nor preparing to hike — even as the war reprices the inflation outlook.
Federal Reserve

Japan Real Wages Rose 1.9% in February, Best Since 2021; BOJ April Hike Bets Firm

Source: Bloomberg, Japan Times
Date/Time: April 7–8, 2026
Japanese real wages rose 1.9% year-on-year in February, beating the 1.3% consensus, marking the strongest gain since 2021. Nominal wages grew 3.3% (vs. 2.7% expected) and base salaries climbed 3.3% — the largest annual increase in approximately 34 years. The data arrives ahead of the Bank of Japan’s April meeting and significantly strengthens the case for a rate hike. The ceasefire-driven oil price plunge removes the most significant near-term headwind to the BOJ’s wage-inflation thesis: if energy prices stabilize, the argument that the virtuous cycle of wages feeding services inflation remains intact becomes much easier to make. Markets are now pricing a BOJ April hike as the base case.
Bloomberg

ECB’s Simkus Warns War Has Pushed Eurozone Toward Adverse Scenario

Source: Bloomberg
Date/Time: April 8, 2026, 08:56 GMT
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said the situation in the eurozone is “moving toward the ECB’s adverse scenario” — the stress projection in which 40% of Hormuz flows are disrupted, pushing Brent to $119 and TTF gas toward €87/MWh in Q2, with Eurozone inflation reaching 3.5% in 2026 and GDP growth falling 0.3 percentage points below baseline. The comment came after the ceasefire announcement, suggesting the cumulative economic damage may have already moved the dial even if the energy shock partially abates. The ECB meets in April; Simkus’s framing signals the council is watching whether the ceasefire delivers durable relief or merely a brief pause, with a tilt toward tightening if conditions worsen.
Bloomberg

RBNZ Holds at 2.25% but Warns of “Decisive and Timely” Rate Hikes if Inflation Expectations De-Anchor

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ActionForex
Date/Time: April 8, 2026
New Zealand’s central bank held its OCR at 2.25% for a second consecutive meeting but delivered one of the most explicitly hawkish policy statements among developed-market central banks this cycle. The RBNZ warned it stands ready to deliver “decisive and timely increases” if inflation expectations begin to de-anchor, and projected inflation accelerating to 4.2% in Q2 — well above its 1–3% target. The statement sharpens the global central bank divergence picture: while most institutions are in wait-and-see mode, the RBNZ is explicitly signaling its next move could be a hike. The ceasefire-driven oil price drop is being monitored closely, but the bank appears unconvinced that near-term relief changes the medium-term inflation trajectory.
Bloomberg

Trump Calls NATO a “Paper Tiger” on Iran; Threatens Membership Reassessment Post-War

Source: Reuters, Axios, NBC News
Date/Time: April 8, 2026
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met President Trump at the White House Wednesday alongside Secretary Rubio and Defense Secretary Hegseth. Trump reiterated that he will reassess US membership in NATO once the Iran war concludes, calling the alliance a “paper tiger” for refusing to join military operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and denying the US access to airspace and military bases. The Iran war has exposed the sharpest fissure in the alliance in decades: a sitting US president used a shooting war to test alliance loyalty, and most European members declined to participate. If Trump follows through on a post-war reassessment, the structural implications for European defense spending, German rearmament timelines, and transatlantic trade are profound.
Axios

India’s RBI Holds at 5.25%; Governor Says Forex Market Curbs Are Temporary

Source: Bloomberg, BusinessToday
Date/Time: April 8, 2026
India’s Reserve Bank held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, pausing a 125-basis-point easing cycle that began in February 2025. The rupee has crossed 93 against the dollar, with record foreign institutional investor outflows of $16.6 billion, forcing the RBI into temporary forex market interventions that the governor said “won’t remain forever.” India faces a difficult squeeze: oil above $100 drives imported inflation while capital outflows and slowing growth pressure the other side. The hold signals the RBI is not willing to ease further while the oil shock persists, but cannot hike without deepening the growth slowdown. A durable ceasefire that brings oil prices sustainably lower is the clearest path back to the easing cycle.
Bloomberg

North Korea Fires Multiple Ballistic Missiles; China Sends Top Envoy to Pyongyang for First Time Since 2019

Source: Bloomberg, NBC News, Bloomberg Economics
Date/Time: April 8, 2026
North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles from Wonsan — one traveling approximately 240 kilometers and a second over 700 kilometers toward eastern waters — hours after Pyongyang dismissed South Korean diplomatic overtures as the words of “world-startling fools.” The launches follow South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s public apology over civilian drone incursions in January. Separately, China’s foreign minister is making his first visit to North Korea since 2019 — a trip Japan and Australia have flagged as evidence of a worsening Asia security vacuum while major-power attention remains fixed on the Middle East. Pyongyang appears to be exploiting the distraction window: both the missile tests and China’s renewed engagement with Kim Jong Un suggest a coordinated realignment of the regional strategic landscape during the Iran war.
Bloomberg

UK PM Starmer Heads to Gulf to Negotiate Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Source: Reuters
Date/Time: April 8, 2026, 06:22 GMT
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departed for Gulf states Wednesday to negotiate the terms of Strait of Hormuz access and British commercial shipping’s role in the post-ceasefire corridor arrangement. Starmer is among the first Western leaders to engage Gulf partners directly since the ceasefire was announced. The visit signals the UK is positioning itself as an active participant in the post-war maritime governance structure rather than a passive beneficiary — potentially seeking bilateral assurances of relevance to London-based insurers, Lloyd’s shipping markets, and North Sea-linked LNG traders severely disrupted by the six-week closure.
Reuters

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1. I once spent four years pretending to be World Economic Forum head Klaus Schwab in a group chat. Zu Vill Own Nothing Und Liek It!!!1!

2. This is going to be tough if you’re an introvert or are boring and bring nothing to the table. Sorry.